Space Habitat Alpha Cost Estimate (Full Program)   Space Habitat Home
Estimates are done for optimistic, one-sigma (68% confidence) and two-sigma (95% confidence) levels.
                 
               
Factory/Facilities Module (Less Subsystems) Cost Estimate  ($M)      
  The cost estimate for this element is based on what is known about the cost for existing and planned Bigelow modules.  The cost is derived by using the unit's mass ratio raised to the power of 0.4, 0.64 or 0.75 to derive optimistic, most likely (Bigelow) and pessimistic estimates.
               
          Optimistic Bigelow Pessimistic
      Mass (kg) Mass Ratio Volume (m3) Cost ($M) Cost ($M) Cost ($M)
          ^0.4 ^.64 ^0.75
Bigelow BEAM 1,360 1.0 25 $18 $18 $18
Bigelow BA330 19,731 14.5 330 $51 $100 $131
Bigelow New   125,382 92.2 2,097 $107 $318 $524
Factory/Facilities Module 529,719 389.5 21,450 $191 $801 $1,543
               
Factory/Facilities Module (One-Sigma)         $1,026
Factory/Facilities Module (Two-Sigma)         $1,251
               
               
Cupola/Docking Module Cost Estimate ($M)        
  The size of the Cupola/Docking Module would be similar to the 'Bigelow New' module; however, it could be more complex, due to the need to be able to rotate it independently of the Factory/Facilities module, etc.  For this reason, we will estimate its cost at 1.5 times that of the Bigelow module.      
               
    Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic      
Cupola/Docking Module $161 $478 $785      
               
Cupola/Docking Module (One-Sigma)   $582      
Cupola/Docking Module (Two-Sigma)   $686      
               
               
Propulsion Module Cost Estimate ($M)          
  The propulsion needs for Low Earth Orbit will be fairly modest and will likely be a combination of conventional an electric (ion) thrusters.      
               
    Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic      
Propulsion Module $100 $200 $500      
               
Propulsion Module (One-Sigma)   $267      
Propulsion Module (Two-Sigma)   $333      
               
               
Structural Elements Cost Estimate ($M)          
  The structural elements include the inner frame, the floor, and 'other' structural elements.      
               
    Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic      
Structural Elements $25 $50 $100      
               
Structural Elements (One-Sigma) ($M)   $63      
Structural Elements (Two-Sigma) ($M)   $75      
               
               
Subsystems Cost Estimate ($M)          
  The subsystems cost is difficult to estimate at this stage, so the estimate will largely be a guess.  More accurate figures will be available as the feasibility study progresses.      
               
    Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic      
Subsystems   $200 $400 $1,000      
               
Subsystems  (One-Sigma)     $533      
Subsystems  (Two-Sigma)     $667      
               
               
Launch Cost Estimate ($M)            
  The launch cost estimate is based on the expected SpaceX Heavy Launch vehicle, which is currently in development.      
               
    Cost/Launch Launches Cost      
Optimistic   $50 9.1 $456      
Most Likely   $100 11.4 $1,140      
Pessimistic   $120 13.7 $1,642      
               
Launch (One-Sigma)     $1,338      
Launch (Two-Sigma)     $1,535      
               
               
Systems Engineering and Management ($M)        
       
               
    Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic      
SE and Mgmt   $28 $60 $150      
               
Systems Engineering and Management (One-Sigma) $80      
Systems Engineering and Management (Two-Sigma) $101      
               
               
Subcontract Management ($M)          
       
               
    Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic      
S/C Mgmt   $17 $30 $45      
               
Systems Engineering and Management (One-Sigma) $35      
Systems Engineering and Management (Two-Sigma) $39      
               
               
On-Orbit Assembly ($M)            
  The on-orbit assembly cost estimate is based on the cost of launching and maintaining the assembly crew on orbit.  If most of the assembly can be done robotically, this cost could be substantially reduuced; however, for this estimate we are assuming manual assembly.      
               
    Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic      
On-Orbit Assy $240 $480 $720      
               
On-Orbit Assembly (One-Sigma)   $560      
On-Orbit Assembly (Two-Sigma)   $640      
               
               
Summary ($M)   Optimistic One-Sigma Two-Sigma Pessimistic  
Factory/Facilities Module   $191 $1,026 $1,251 $1,543  
Cupola/Docking Module   $161 $582 $686 $785  
Propulsion Module   $100 $267 $333 $500  
Structural Elements   $25 $63 $75 $100  
Subsystems     $200 $533 $667 $1,000  
Launch     $456 $1,338 $1,535 $1,642  
Systems Engineering and Management $28 $80 $101 $150  
Subcontract Management   $17 $35 $39 $45  
On-Orbit Assembly   $240 $560 $640 $720  
  Space Habitat Alpha Total   $1,418 $4,483 $5,327 $6,485